Dramatically greener Arctic in the coming decades

Apr. 9, 2013 ? Rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening" of the Arctic by mid-century, as a result of marked increases in plant cover, according to research supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) as part of its International Polar Year (IPY) portfolio.

The greening not only will have effects on plant life, the researchers noted, but also on the wildlife that depends on vegetation for cover. The greening could also have a multiplier effect on warming, as dark vegetation absorbs more solar radiation than ice, which reflects sunlight.

In a paper published March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the coming decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

"Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem," said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation.

In addition to Pearson, the research team includes other scientists from the museum, as well as from AT&T Labs-Research, Woods Hole Research Center, Colgate and Cornell universities, and the University of York.

The research was funded by two related, collaborative NSF IPY grants, one made to the museum and one to the Woods Hole Research Center.

IPY was a two-year, global campaign of research in the Arctic and Antarctic that fielded scientists from more than 60 nations in the period 2007-2009. The IPY lasted two years to insure a full year of observations at both poles, where extreme cold and darkness preclude research for much of the year. NSF was the lead U.S. government agency for IPY.

Although the IPY fieldwork has been largely accomplished "in addition to the intensive field efforts undertaken during the IPY, projects such as this one work to understand IPY and other data in a longer-term context, broadening the impact of any given data set,"said Hedy Edmonds, Arctic Natural Sciences program director in the Division of Polar Programs of NSF's Geosciences Directorate.

Plant growth in Arctic ecosystems has increased over the past few decades, a trend that coincides with increases in temperatures, which are rising at about twice the global rate.

The research team used climate scenarios for the 2050s to explore how the greening trend is likely to continue in the future. The scientists developed models that statistically predict the types of plants that could grow under certain temperatures and precipitation. Although it comes with some uncertainty, this type of modeling is a robust way to study the Arctic because the harsh climate limits the range of plants that can grow, making this system simpler to model compared to other regions, such as the tropics.

The models reveal the potential for massive redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic under future climate, with about half of all vegetation switching to a different class and a massive increase in tree cover. What might this look like? In Siberia, for instance, trees could grow hundreds of miles north of the present tree line.

These impacts would extend far beyond the Arctic region, according to Pearson.

For example, some species of birds migrate from lower latitudes seasonally, and rely on finding particular polar habitats, such as open space for ground-nesting.

The computer modeling for the project was supported by a separate NSF grant to Cornell by the Division of Computer and Network Systems in NSF's Directorate for Computer & Information Science & Engineering, as part of the directorate's Expeditions in Computing program.

"The Expeditions grant has enabled us to develop sophisticated probabilistic models that can scale up to continent-wide vegetation prediction and provide associated uncertainty estimates. This is a great example of the transformative research happening within the new field of Computational Sustainability," said Carla P. Gomes, principal investigator at Cornell.

In addition to the first-order impacts of changes in vegetation, the researchers investigated the multiple climate-change feedbacks that greening would produce.

They found that a phenomenon called the albedo effect, based on the reflectivity of Earth's surface, would have the greatest impact on the Arctic's climate. When the sun hits snow, most of the radiation is reflected back to space. But when it hits an area that's "dark," or covered in trees or shrubs, more sunlight is absorbed in the area and temperature increases. This has a positive feedback to climate warming: the more vegetation there is, the more warming will occur.

"By incorporating observed relationships between plants and albedo, we show that vegetation distribution shifts will result in an overall positive feedback to climate that is likely to cause greater warming than has previously been predicted," said co-author and NSF grantee Scott Goetz, of the Woods Hole Research Center.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by National Science Foundation.

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Journal Reference:

1. Richard G. Pearson, Steven J. Phillips, Michael M. Loranty, Pieter S. A. Beck, Theodoros Damoulas, Sarah J. Knight, Scott J. Goetz. Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1858

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/~3/3iujWooqe3U/130409132008.htm

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Bigger Not Always Better for Penis Size [Video]

A new study reveals diminishing returns in the attractiveness to females of larger-than-average genitalia

By Regina Nuzzo and Nature magazine

Image: Mautz, B. S., Wong, B. B. M., Peters, R. A. & Jennions, M. D. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA (2013).

From Nature magazine

Researchers report today that penis size does matter to women ? though within limits. The finding suggests that women?s preferences could have fuelled the evolution of the human male penis, which is longer and thicker than that of any other primate.

Male genitalia evolve quickly. They diversify earlier than other physical traits, with a wide variation in size and shape across the animal kingdom that can reveal a species? evolutionary pressures. Biologists have puzzled, therefore, over what factors might have caused the human penis to become so large.

Now, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that women consider penis size and height equally when judging men?s attractiveness, but both exhibit diminishing returns with greater size and are less important than a masculine body type.

The findings add to a debate that began in 1966?when sexuality researchers William Masters and Virginia Johnson declared penis size to be unimportant to most females. Subsequent studies of women?s preferences, based on questionnaires or line drawings, have reported conflicting results.

For the latest study, researchers developed computer-generated images of males that varied independently in three factors: height, shoulder-to-hip ratio and penis length. A sample of 105 heterosexual Australian women each viewed life-sized projections of 53 of the images and rated their sexual attractiveness.

Too big to succeed?
The data showed an upside-down-U-shaped curve for each trait. The women considered taller men with a more masculine body type (indicated by a larger shoulder-to-hip-size ratio) and longer penis to be more attractive, but not without limits ? there were diminishing returns for extreme size, and men with substantially larger-than average features were not found much more attractive than those with only slightly above-average features.

Study leader Brian Mautz, a biologist now at the University of Ottawa in Canada, says that there seems to be a ceiling effect for each trait ? a point of theoretical peak attractiveness, beyond which women?s ratings will begin to decline. The team?s model predicts that the most attractive penis would measure 12.8?14.2 centimetres in its flaccid state. Mautz notes that this ideal size is relatively closer to the population average (of 9 centimetres) than are the predicted ideals for the other traits, implying that women prefer more extreme shoulder-to-hip ratio and tallness but less extreme penis size.

Other researchers say that the findings are an important first step but fall short of showing a role for sexual selection in the evolution of human penis size, a point that Mautz concedes. ?It's hard to extrapolate much from the data,? he says.??More work needs to be done to connect the dots.?

Alan Dixson, a primatologist at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, says that the research should be broadened to include women from other countries and cultures ? especially those from indigenous populations in which full clothing is not usually worn.

More crucially, female preference needs to be tied to reproductive success, says William Eberhard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Costa Rica in San Pedro. Women may prefer a large penis when choosing a partner, but that doesn?t necessarily translate into more offspring who carry those genes.

Still, the findings have immediate implications for sexual medicine and counselling, says Geoffrey Miller, an evolutionary psychologist at New York University. ?This research will allow an uncomfortable subject to become a legitimate topic of discussion.?

This article is reproduced with permission from the magazine Nature. The article was first published on April 8, 2013.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=1397b416cd25079a72dad117e1bf6b6a

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During Guantanamo Hunger Strike, Detainee Attempted Suicide, Lawyer Says

WASHINGTON -- A Guantanamo detainee who had been on a hunger strike for 43 days tried to kill himself in solitary confinement in March, his lawyer told The Huffington Post.

Adel Bin Ahmed Bin Ibrahim Hkiml, 48, of Tunisia, has been held at Guantanamo for more than 11 years. "I haven't seen him in a while. I haven't been able to talk to him," Cori Crider, the legal director of Reprieve, told HuffPost of her client. "But he had a really hard time back in Kandahar back in the days, and I think was never really the same."

Crider had no details on how Hkiml tried to commit suicide, while a Department of Defense spokesman said there had been "no recent suicide attempts." (Full statement below.) In a letter dated March 19 that was just cleared, another Guantanamo detainee told his lawyer who later informed Crider that Hkiml made the suicide attempt in March.

"He was in solitary confinement, yet his attempts failed," the detainee wrote in the letter. "He is from Tunisia and he made his suicide attempt while in Camp V. He was taken by the ambulance and we don't know his whereabouts and whether he died or not. And as of the date of this letter, we still don't know anything about him."

The prisoner hunger strike, in which Hkiml was participating, began in February at Guantanamo, although it was not made public until March. On Monday
the United States government began informing lawyers that their clients were on a hunger strike or had been force-fed. As of Monday, 42 detainees were considered on a hunger strike under the military definition, which means they skipped at least nine consecutive meals. Of that group, 11 were being force-fed.

Hkiml reportedly worked as a butcher, a private in the Tunisian army and a fruit vendor previously. A 2007 U.S. government report stated that he "tries to portray himself as a relatively minor participant in Islamic extremist activities," but said that he was a "significant participant" and that he had "changed details of his cover story numerous times."

Another Guantanamo detainee also informed his lawyer, who relayed the information to Crider, that fellow detainee Samir Naji al Hasan Moqbel had a "minor heart stroke" while being tube fed on March 19 and was sent to the hospital.

"All clients report several people 'falling' daily because of low blood sugar and having to be taken away on stretchers. There is a real risk someone is going seriously to be hurt before this is over," Crider told HuffPost. "Every client we've spoken to says that while the Qur'an started this mess, indefinite detention of cleared men like them is what keeps it going."

Clive A. Stafford Smith spoke to his client Younus Chekkouri, a detainee who is also participating in the hunger strike, on Tuesday. "'Really, now it is just pain everywhere,'" Smith said, recounting Chekkouri's observations in a statement. "'I don't want to die in Guant?namo.'"

Smith said Chekkouri told him that his cell "looked like Hurricane Katrina had just been through" after soldiers searched it in February, setting off the hunger strike.

Chekkouri, who Smith said is one of the most cooperative detainees at Guantanamo, is now only eating Metamucil, he told Smith. "'When I eat it, it feels like the best food in the entire world. I am addicted to the small pieces of Metamucil,'" Smith's statement said.

"'The nightmare has started again. For some time, things had got a bit better here, some of the guards were acting like human beings. Even if we were treated like sheep, at least we were not always mistreated. But now it has changed again,'" Smith's statement said. "'And now 86 of us have been cleared for release and we are still here. Let us leave Guant?namo with clear hearts, and without hatred. Hatred is evil, and it harms the person who is hating as well as the person who is hated.'?

The military currently isn't allowing media to schedule visits to access the camp.

UPDATE: 8:03 p.m. -- U.S. Navy Capt. Robert Durand, a military spokesman, made this statement:

We don't comment on individual detainees' medical or hunger striker status. However, we have had no recent suicide attempts.

We do not consider hunger striking a suicide attempt, but an act of protest. No hunger striker is currently in medical danger, including those receiving enteral feeds. Enteral feeding is a nutritional intervention done before a patient is at risk of experiencing health consequences, and generally returns a patient to 100% ideal body weight in a short period of time.

We take seriously our mission to ensure the detainees' health and safety, and take all suicidal ideations (expressions of intent to harm self or futility), suicidal gestures (hoarding pills, making ropes/nooses) seriously, and intervene to preserve life if we encounter a suicide attempt (actual acts or near-acts of self-harm).

Also on HuffPost:

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/guantanamo-hunger-strike_n_3047253.html

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Oh, the places you won't go! World's 25 least-visited countries

Using UN statistics, travel writer?Gunnar Garfors found that top contenders for the least-visited award are often dangerous or remote. But some are just plain boring.

By Ryan Lenora Brown,?Correspondent / March 29, 2013

Somali men look out across Mogadishu's fishing harbor in the early morning as fishermen land their catch and transport their fish to the market in the Xamar Weyne district of the Somali capital, March 16. Somalia is the second-least visited country in the world, according to a recent list compiled by travel writer Gunnar Garfors from UN statistics.

Courtesy of Stuart Price/AU-UN IST PHOTO/Reuters

Enlarge

For some travelers, getting off the beaten path is a point of pride, a way to see the parts of the world that don?t make it into glossy guidebooks.

Skip to next paragraph Ryan Lenora Brown

Correspondent

Ryan Brown edits the Africa Monitor blog and contributes to the national and international news desks of the Monitor. She is a former Fulbright fellow to South Africa and holds a degree in history from Duke University.?

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But how many of those same adventurous travelers would be willing to visit, say, Somalia?

About 500, it turns out.

At least, that?s how many tourists found their way to the wartorn east African nation last year. ?

That makes Somalia the second-least visited country in the world, after the tiny pacific island nation Nauru, according to a recent list compiled by travel writer Gunnar Garfors from UN statistics.?

Little Nauru ? 8.1 square miles in size, population 9,378 ? got just 200 visitors last year, and it?s pretty clear why.

?There is almost nothing to see there,? writes Mr. Garfors, ?as most of the island ? is a large open phosphate mine.??

Indeed, most of the world?s least visited countries seem to fall in one of two categories. There are the Naurus, where you?ll puzzle over what to do, and the Somalias, where it?s simply too dangerous to do much of anything at all. (As Somalia?s Wikitravel page aptly notes, ?the easiest method for staying safe in Somalia is not to go in the first place.?)?

Most of the ?nothing to do? countries are the crumbs that dust a map of the Pacific Ocean: the Federated States of Micronesia, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu. The latter shares with the Maldives the dubious distinction of having "highest elevation points" that are the lowest on earth ? 15 feet above sea level. Visit while you can, as rising sea levels could make the island uninhabitable within a century.

As for the ?too dangerous? countries, the list reads like a global primer in political conflict. For instance, despite its pristine national parks full of wild gorillas and elephants, the perpetually ungovernable Central African Republic (#23) is an unpopular destination for tourists. And its stock will likely continue to plummet ? last week a rebel alliance seized the capital, Bangui, and the president fled to neighboring Cameroon. (For more on the tempestuous politics of the CAR, read about the rebel alliance that took power there Sunday)

Afghanistan (#10) also suffers from tourism-deflating instability, which keeps visitors away from its rugged peaks, ancient Buddhist monuments, and Islamic holy sites, including the 12th-century Minaret of Jam, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

?The Taliban have a message for foreign tourists who come to Afghanistan, especially if they are from any of the 50 countries that are part of the NATO-led coalition supporting the government: Big mistake,? writes The New York Times.

Other countries on the list, like Guinea Bissau (#14), Libya (#15), and East Timor (#18), have seen their reputations ? and infrastructure ? hobbled by recent wars or uprisings.

But not every country on the list is too dangerous or boring to visit. A few are simply effectively sealed off to the outside world.

All foreign visitors to North Korea (#16) are limited to a state-curated itinerary and must have an official government ?minder? by their side at all times. But for the few Western tourists who venture into the country, that?s part of the appeal. ?You will rarely get to see propaganda done more explicitly,? Garfors writes.

Except, perhaps, in Turkmenistan (#7), where visitors who brave the onerous Soviet-esque visa application process were, at least until 2010, rewarded with sites like a 50-ft. golden statue of former dictator Saparmurat Niyazov in the capital Ashgabat, which rotated throughout the course of the day to face the sun. But the country?s most indisputably impressive site is a massive flaming crater deep in the Karakum Desert. Measuring 230 feet across and almost 70 feet deep, the so-called ?Door to Hell? has been burning continuously since Soviet scientists lit it on fire in 1971. ?

Obscure? Yes. But that's part of the charm.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/csmonitor/globalnews/~3/NWsRTQMB3ZM/Oh-the-places-you-won-t-go!-World-s-25-least-visited-countries

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'Finding Nemo 2' Gets Its Official Title: 'Finding Dory'

"Finding Nemo 2" finally has an official — and telling — name: "Finding Dory." Walt Disney Pictures announced the detail about the long-anticipated sequel, which takes place a year after the events of "Finding Nemo." "I have waited for this day for a long, long, long, long, long, long time," Ellen DeGeneres said in a [...]

Source: http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2013/04/02/finding-nemo-2-finding-dory/

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